As we know, the UK Government’s electric vehicles strategy is attracting criticism from multiple quarters. In the short term, prospects for electric vehicles aren’t too rosy either. Looking at current sales of battery electric vehicles, it’s clear that growth of the market is painfully slow. In the United Kingdom, sales of electric vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) rose from 0.2% of new vehicles sold in 2013 to 1.9% in 2017¹, compared to a rise in Norway from 6% to 39% over the same time period.² Furthermore, in 2017 only 0.54% of sales of new vehicles in the UK were battery electric. Even with huge falls in the sales of diesels, buyers are still switching to petrol vehicles, not EVs. If the Government wants to meet the Road to Zero target of 50-70% of sales of new cars to be ultra-low emission by 2030, it needs to consider a more active set of policies than it is currently pursuing.

Filling policy gaps

While the overarching direction of the Road to Zero is appropriate, there is troublingly little detail as to how these targets will be achieved, leaving industry no mid-term target and little sense of timeline and potential solutions if the market fails to perform as expected. Additionally, a remarkable amount of faith is placed in manufacturers and consumers, despite recent reports that car manufacturers aren’t doing enough to market electric models, and are still unable to keep up with consumer demand.

Perhaps the easiest way to give clarity and long-term stability to the markets is to take a leaf out of California’s book, and set yearly targets with tradable credits for the sales of low emission vehicles, as part of its Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate. This policy, along with efforts to install increasing amounts of infrastructure, and low emissions standards, has perhaps been the catalyst for the high number of electric vehicles in the state - in California 2.5% of vehicles are electric, a percentage five times higher than in the United Kingdom.³ China implemented a mandate in April 2018, setting achievable but stretching targets for car manufacturers, who must get new energy vehicle (NEV) credits equal to 10% of sales in 2019, and 12% in 2020. Awareness that this policy was due to be implemented gave strong signals to manufacturers over the last few years, encouraging a pre-emptive ramping up of production.⁴ A ZEV mandate in the UK would provide the stability and clarity that manufacturers need, and steadily increase supply for a public that just can’t get enough EVs.

Remaining roadblocks

EDF Europe had a chance to examine further barriers to the uptake of electric vehicles at a recent workshop run jointly by EDF Europe, Newcastle University, and National Grid. Afternoon discussions among stakeholders from all sectors involved with electric vehicles, from industry to academia, made it clear that the road to a clean vehicle future contains a tremendous number of barriers. Lack of regulatory certainty frequently came up as a primary roadblock preventing manufacturers from committing to higher supply levels, as well as preventing growth of the market from a consumer perspective – both necessary (though not sufficient) components of achieving ambitious zero emission vehicle targets. Other unresolved issues include:

• Successful integration of vehicles into the grid, including their ability to utilise renewable energy, which necessarily includes a consideration of rates or tariffs
• Ensuring smart charging capabilities, so that cars can “talk” to the charging station and the grid, and better ensure that charging patterns reflect grid conditions and the presence of high amounts of renewable energy
• The need to defray upfront vehicle costs through appropriate rates and incentives
• The need to spend money on innovative technology, including vehicle to grid services

Conclusion

As the reports of the BEIS Committee and CCC both make clear, the transport sector requires active policymaking to ensure that we can reach our emissions targets and mitigate devastating climate change. To that end, in order to be truly effective, the Road to Zero Strategy needs to provide industry with clarity as to how the Low-Emission Vehicle market will develop over the coming decades. Far from leading the world, the Government is asleep at the wheel. While its dreams of a 21^st century clean transport system are good in theory, these ambitions are no more than a pipe dream until the Government wakes and takes proper control of translating goals into sound and realistic policy.

[1] ‘2018 Global Electrified Transport Market Outlook’, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2018

[2] Data: SMMT, accessed at: https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/evs-and-afvs-registrations/

[3] Own calculation: data from https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/CA-cityEV-Briefing-20180507.pdf, and UK Office of Statistics

[4] ‘Assessment Of Electric Car Promotion Policies In Chinese Cities’, ICCT, 2018, accessed 01/11/2018 at: https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China_city_NEV_assessment_20181018.pdf